World development forecast after the financial crisis.

A large number of analysts are trying to predict the possible end of the financial crisis or the so-called crisis of «subprime loans».

According to the first option, the economic situation will return to normal in the second quarter of this year. This scenario is accompanied by ongoing and more expanded globalization without abrupt changes: the world space will become more and more interconnected. If in the short term, the hierarchy of countries does not change globally, then in 2030, countries, mainly developing ones, will continue to catch up with the developed ones and, thus, the pyramid will become more extended at the top..

The second scenario assumes that the financial crisis will entail the return of the state to the economic arena. However, rather quickly, this intervention will run into difficulties: the budget deficits of many developed countries will entail a loss of market confidence, which will translate into a global recession that will be difficult to overcome. International conferences will replace one another and can only muffle the crisis.

This scenario assumes globalization with an emphasis on the loss of influence by some developed countries, international organizations, and a lack of counterpower. Free trade will be imposed without any special barriers, which will entail an active «flattening» of the world and a rapid increase in inequality in the medium term.

Another scenario is also possible, where the crisis of recent years entails a demand for the use of sovereign regulators, especially in the international arena. Nevertheless, states will react in a scattered manner, concentration at the international level will lead to the creation of a general legal framework that will be more or less respected in view of the existing circumstances. The main feature of this scenario is the return of the role of states. Globalization is intensified by competition between states that invest as much as possible in human capital.

And finally, the financial crisis of the past years will expose for the citizens of developed countries some of the shortcomings of an economy centered around short-term profitability. The social cost of such purely shareholder management is overstated. At the same time, the understanding of the need to preserve the environment will develop along with the environmental crisis..

Globalization is intensifying, accompanied by a decrease in the role of the state. But, a transition to the second scenario is possible, provided there is strong competition, and then, citizens-consumers who have become capital holders will play an important role.